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November 30, 2016

TPP Failure Might Not Affect U.S. Dairy Producers

 |  By: Anna-Lisa Laca

The Trans-Pacific Partnership has been in limbo for months. President Obama has been pushing for the trade deal to be approved; meanwhile, President-elect Trump has all but promised a full withdrawal from the deal. Other nations participating in the negotiations say they will move to ratify the deal with or without participation from the U.S.

The move has left many industry groups, including the National Milk Producers Federation and American Farm Bureau Federation, to advocate and lobby for the deal’s completion. Even so, not everyone agrees TPP was a silver bullet, particularly for the U.S. dairy industry.

“I honestly don’t think it’s a huge hit for us one way or another,” says Tom Bailey, an economist with Rabobank. “I don’t think TPP was going to move the dial for the U.S. dairy industry.”

Bailey says the deal would have given the U.S. an advantage in some high-paying markets. However, he doesn’t think it would have boosted exports as much as many thought it would.

“At the end of the day, it didn’t look like a deal that was going to be phenomenal for the U.S. dairy industry one way or another,” he says. 

According to Bailey, the U.S. dairy industry can expect to face additional challenges ahead in terms of export markets.

“We’re going to have to negotiate other trade deals,” he says.

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