August 20, 2018

Details On USDA’s Bullish July Milk Production Report

 |  By: Anna-Lisa Laca

July milk production was only up 0.45% from the previous month, according to Monday’s milk production report from USDA. Total U.S. milk production totaled 18.350 billion pounds, slightly below most analyst expectations. 

Several states saw a decline in milk production, in fact 11 of the 23 highest producing states were lower year over year. That list includes California -2.5%, Florida -5.9%, Virginia -5.0% and Vermont -3.0%. A few states grew with the largest increases in Colorado, +8.9%, Kansas, +7.6%, and Texas, +7.3%. Ironically these are all states that recently had new requests for CAFO permits. 

Not only was the limited milk production growth a bullish factor, but cow numbers were 9.396 million head. While that number was “well shy” of the expectations of analysts with INTL FCStone, they say it’s not a surprise given slaughter rates have been strong. 

Milk production per cow 1,953 pounds, lower than many analyst expectations. Futures markets responded accordingly and FCStone analysts expect a firmer open overnight as a result of the report. 

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