volatility
December 11, 2018

WASDE: USDA Lowers Milk Production Forecasts, All-Milk Price Projections

 |  By: Anna-Lisa Laca

In their December World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Tuesday, USDA lowered milk production forecasts for 2018 and 2019 on both slower growth in milk per cow and lower cow numbers. In addition, they reduced the all-milk price projections on the backs of struggling cheese prices. The all-milk price is forecast lower at $16.15 to $16.25 per cwt for 2018 and $16.40 to $17.20 per cwt for 2019.

 

Fat basis import and export forecasts are raised for 2018 and 2019. Strong domestic demand supports higher imports of butter and sales of butteroil and anhydrous milk fat, are bushing exports.

 

“The price forecast for cheese is lowered for 2018 on current price weakness and continued high stock levels, but the forecasts for butter, NDM and whey are unchanged,” USDA reported.

“For 2019, cheese and butter price forecasts are reduced while the NDM price forecast is

unchanged.”

 

As a result, USDA lowered the 2018 and 2019 Class III price forecasts from last month on lower cheese prices. Class IV prices are unchanged at the midpoint of the range for both years, USDA said.

 

 

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