WASDE: USDA Projects Lower Production, Higher Prices
The milk production forecast for 2019 is unchanged, but the forecast for 2020 is reduced on slower expected growth in milk per cow. USDA’s Cattle report, to be released on July 19th, will provide a mid-year estimate of the dairy cow inventory and producer intentions regarding retention of heifers for dairy cow replacement.
For 2019 and 2020, the fat basis import forecasts are raised from the previous month on higher expected imports of butterfat products. Fat basis exports for 2019 are reduced on slower expected shipments of butterfat products. The 2020 fat basis export forecast is also reduced on expectations that U.S. butter exports will continue to be less competitive globally. The skimsolids basis import forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged from the previous month. However, skim-solids basis exports for 2019 and 2020 are reduced from the previous month on lower exports of lactose, whey products, and other dairy products.
The 2019 cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts are increased from the previous month while butter and whey price forecasts are reduced. The 2020 cheese price forecast is raised fractionally as demand is expected to improve, but the butter price forecast is lowered. The whey price forecast is also reduced as export prospects remain relatively weak. The NDM price forecast is unchanged.
The 2019 Class III price is raised as the higher cheese price more than offsets a lower whey price, and the Class IV price is raised as a higher NDM price more than offsets the lower butter price. The 2020 Class III price forecast is unchanged as the fractionally higher cheese price is offset by a lower whey price. The Class IV price forecast reflects a lower butter price. The 2019 all milk price is forecast higher at $18.20 per cwt, but the all milk price forecast for 2020 is slightly lower than the previous month at $18.85.